Germany has been a dominant market for solar installations over the last few years, but that demand will soon shift to countries in both Asia and North America, according to new report from Lux Research. Over the next five years, the emerging-technology consultancy sees demand for solar moving to a broader range of markets as costs fall and returns increase.
The report was based on an analysis of the cost of electricity and the expected rate of return from solar projects across 156 countries, states and regions. Findings concluded that Japan, China and India will be the next to drive significant volume of solar projects, with the United States coming in fourth, as government support continues through 2016.
The number of markets reaching grid parity on commercial rooftop system – where solar is as cheap as grid power – will go from one in 2010 to 10 in 2016, including the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua. Hawaii will be the first market to accomplish residential grid parity in 2011; by 2016, a total of seven other residential markets will follow, including Italy, Denmark, and Ukraine.
The report also highlighted the most attractive markets for residential solar projects (Australia, Greece and Ontario); commercial projects (New Jersey, Portugal and Hawaii); and utility ground-mount projects (Portugal, New Jersey and Cyprus). By 2016, viable investment targets will increase dramatically, to encompass 45 residential markets, a whopping 88 commercial markets and 85 utility markets.