Developing economies such as China, Russia, India and Brazil currently account for around 50 percent of the world’s energy consumption, but in the next twenty years, they’ll account for more like two-thirds, accounting for 93 percent of the increase in primary energy use worldwide. Oh, and renewables will grow faster than fossil fuels for the first time ever. Says who? Says the new BP Energy Outlook 2030 trends analysis from BP.
According to this analysis, diversification of energy sources reportedly will increase significantly over the next twenty years, with nuclear, hydro and renewables together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. Renewables, depending upon national policies, are set to increase in total worldwide production capacity from 5% to 18% overall, with coal and oil likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience rates of lower growth. Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%.
Seeking perhaps to put a happier face on the environmental consequences of the BP Deepwater oil spill, BP’s Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said, in a statement, “The issues covered in this document are huge ones – the effort to provide energy to fuel the global economy, sustainably, in an era of unprecedented growth. I believe one of our responsibilities is to share the information we have, to inform the debate on energy, and now on climate change.”
BP was careful to emphasize that the BP Energy Outlook 2030 base case “is a projection, not a proposition. It is our dispassionate view of what we believe is most likely to happen on the basis of the evidence.”